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How Much Will THE DARK KNIGHT Make Opening Weekend?

I’ve been reading wild speculation going on online claiming that this thing will hit $200 million opening weekend.  I’m not sure if this is even physically possible, but I felt like coming here and giving you my personal theory as to what The Dark Knight will make this weekend and why.

IMHO, $200 million is out of the question, but can it break Spiderman 3‘s record of $151 million in one weekend?  Yes and no.  It is possible for it to break the record. Anything is possible. But if I had to guess, I think that it will fall a bit short. NO SHAME IN THIS, by the way, but here is why Spidey 3 hit it and why Dark Knight will not. Spidey hit the following quadrants:

1) Guys of all ages dig Spiderman.
2) Women who get dragged along, who like Spiderman or like the love story (gag me)
3) FAMILIES who can bring their kids to this without worrying about objectionable material.

Now, can Dark Knight hit all three of these? Nuh uh.

1) Guys are there. IN FORCE.
2) Women will be dragged as dates as payback for Sex and the City, or show up to ogle Bale.
3) BUT FAMILIES WITH KIDS WILL NOT SHOW in as much force as they did for Spidey. Little kids did not like Batman Begins, and this would probably be “boring” or “too scary” for them. The Joker will give children NIGHTMARES, and word has already spread to families that this ain’t a kiddie flick.

Without the family dollar, can Dark Knight still take the record? Perhaps, but it needs an overabundance of support from the other areas to get this done. With the rate of theater sellouts, it’s a good possibility.  My IMAX is sold out for the ENTIRE WEEKEND.  Five shows a day, all gone, but I’m not 100% sold on it being a lock to break the record. Right now, I’m calling it at $136.8 million dollars.

I watch the movie Sunday afternoon, so I’ll post a review sometime Sunday night/early Monday morning.

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