Stale Popcorn » How Much Will THE DARK KNIGHT Make Opening Weekend?

How Much Will THE DARK KNIGHT Make Opening Weekend?

I’ve been reading wild speculation going on online claiming that this thing will hit $200 million opening weekend.  I’m not sure if this is even physically possible, but I felt like coming here and giving you my personal theory as to what The Dark Knight will make this weekend and why.

IMHO, $200 million is out of the question, but can it break Spiderman 3‘s record of $151 million in one weekend?  Yes and no.  It is possible for it to break the record. Anything is possible. But if I had to guess, I think that it will fall a bit short. NO SHAME IN THIS, by the way, but here is why Spidey 3 hit it and why Dark Knight will not. Spidey hit the following quadrants:

1) Guys of all ages dig Spiderman.
2) Women who get dragged along, who like Spiderman or like the love story (gag me)
3) FAMILIES who can bring their kids to this without worrying about objectionable material.

Now, can Dark Knight hit all three of these? Nuh uh.

1) Guys are there. IN FORCE.
2) Women will be dragged as dates as payback for Sex and the City, or show up to ogle Bale.
3) BUT FAMILIES WITH KIDS WILL NOT SHOW in as much force as they did for Spidey. Little kids did not like Batman Begins, and this would probably be “boring” or “too scary” for them. The Joker will give children NIGHTMARES, and word has already spread to families that this ain’t a kiddie flick.

Without the family dollar, can Dark Knight still take the record? Perhaps, but it needs an overabundance of support from the other areas to get this done. With the rate of theater sellouts, it’s a good possibility.  My IMAX is sold out for the ENTIRE WEEKEND.  Five shows a day, all gone, but I’m not 100% sold on it being a lock to break the record. Right now, I’m calling it at $136.8 million dollars.

I watch the movie Sunday afternoon, so I’ll post a review sometime Sunday night/early Monday morning.

19 thoughts on “How Much Will THE DARK KNIGHT Make Opening Weekend?

  1. Grundy

    Plus, isn’t the movie nearing 3 hours, that’s gonna cut down on screens too.

    I’m not sure about the family one though. I’ll say a good amount will be taking their kids to see it.

  2. Kristina Post author

    And while there will be kids at screenings for sure, you aren’t going to see AS MANY as there were for Spiderman.

  3. Grundy

    I honestly don’t care much for Box Office. If it’s a movie I like, of course I’m gonna want to make money, but that’s about as far as my caring about a film’s B.O. goes.

  4. Gareth

    Maybe, maybe not. Batman is hugely popular so I wouldn’t be surprised if quite a few parents still take their kids regardless. And you want a number? I’m going to peg it at $165 mil.

  5. Wesley Willis

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  6. joe

    your stupid, spiderman is a dumb movie and the only reason it made money was from parents taking their children, thats why batman is goen past $210 million

  7. Gazz

    Wyv blagged the roundabout figure I’d have gone for so I’ll throw lower and go with $154.8 million!

    The advanced screenings for the Odeon around my area are pretty much flat out sold out so I think this is going to be BIG!

    Yes, bigger than Spider-Man 3. And Grundy is right, parents will drag their kids along to this. I’ve lost faith in parents being responsible in what they take their kids to these days (re-read my epic KING KONG remake review for more comments on this!)

    I just hope they don’t drag them along to the screening or the IMAX screening I’m going to be attending!

  8. Wesley Willis

    Just got back from seeing it at a 1:20pm show. It was pretty packed so I would expect big numbers this weekend.

  9. Kristina

    Well, since it made $66 million on Friday, looks like my number was way too low! That’s insane money for one day!

  10. Gazz

    Transformers made like $88million in its first day of release if I remember correctly. Either way, I think the ‘build’ on this is going to be HUGE. I think my “guess-timate” is going to be way off!

    I was speaking to a friend in the US recently and his wife absolutely detests any comic book related movie and he says that even SHE is going to see this one. I said “Why? Because of the whole Heath Ledger thing?” and he said “No, because someone told her it was absolutely awesome and just HAS to be seen!”

    Word-Of-Mouth is going to give a hell of a lot of help to this film, when it doesn’t even need anymore help!

  11. Gazz

    OMG! Are you serious? $155 million?

    So that means I “win” right? I said $154.8 million. Come on, nobody suggested closer then that right?

    Man, I’ve never won anything before. Well, asides from that “Newcastle’s Ugliest Baby” competition… and who would’ve thought I’d win two things in one week eh?

    I think I should be given that DVD of Matthew Perry’s NUMB as my reward. Or at least your opinion left in my DARK KNIGHT / HELLBOY / GET SMART / HAMMER reviews, lol!

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